Vermont has long operated by its own rules. While housing markets across the country swing between overheated bidding wars and cooling corrections, Burlington and its surrounding communities have maintained a steadier, more insulated trajectory. For those watching from the outside, the numbers can seem counterintuitive. For those working inside the market every day, they make perfect sense.
Isaiah Donaldson, Founder and Lead Realtor at idENTITY Real Estate Group, has spent the past six years building his practice in greater Burlington, taking over full ownership of the former Conroy Group in early 2024 and completing a full rebrand in March 2026. His read on the local market offers a useful counterpoint to the broader national narrative.
A Market Built on Scarcity
To understand Burlington’s housing market, it helps to understand Vermont’s regulatory history. Act 250, a longstanding land use law, has for decades restricted overdevelopment across the state, limiting how much can be built and where. The result is a market that simply does not behave like most others.
Limited supply keeps prices stable. During the post-COVID run from 2021 through 2024, the greater Burlington area saw year-over-year appreciation of 15 to 21 percent. More telling is what has happened since: values have not pulled back the way they have in many other metros. The average days on market for a single-family home currently sits at around seven days, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to national averages. “They hold their value because there’s not a lot of other things saturating it to flux up and down,” Donaldson explains.
Inventory Is Rising, But Context Matters
Inventory remains a common headline in Northeast real estate coverage, and Burlington is no exception. However, the story here is more layered than simple scarcity.
Year-over-year, single-family inventory in the Burlington area is up roughly 25 to 26 percent as of late April 2026. Condo and townhome inventory has risen even more sharply, up around 60 percent over the same period. Part of that increase reflects new supply rather than just existing owners listing. In Chittenden County, 572 housing units were created in 2025 alone, with approximately 555 more expected by the end of 2026. That pace represents a meaningful departure from historical norms.
Institutional anchors are contributing to that supply. The University of Vermont and UVM Medical Center together created 170 staff housing units in 2025 and are on track to deliver 99 more this year. These are not market-rate units chasing speculative demand. They reflect genuine workforce need tied to two of the region’s largest employers.
Recent zoning changes have also opened new doors. Burlington’s updated FAR rules, which allow for a four-to-one square footage ratio relative to lot size in designated zones, are beginning to show up in actual development activity. “We’re now starting to see those implementations from local developers,” Donaldson notes.
Affordability Programs Filling the Gap
Rising values have created real pressure for buyers entering the market for the first time. What distinguishes Vermont’s response is the range of programs available to offset that pressure.
The Vermont Housing Finance Agency offers first-time buyers a rate that typically runs about a quarter point below the prevailing federal rate, along with grant-based down payment and closing cost assistance of up to $30,000 for qualifying applicants. Unlike a loan, the grant does not need to be repaid.
The Champlain Housing Trust operates a shared equity model that allows buyers to enter homeownership at a lower cost by holding a portion of the property’s equity itself. Residents build equity over time and can use it toward a future purchase. Recent grant approvals have funded new CHT projects in Burlington and neighboring Winooski, including a mixed-use development combining community services with new housing units and a 32-unit townhome development near a local park.
Who Is Buying and Why
The buyer pool in Burlington skews local. Donaldson estimates that more than half of active buyers are Vermont residents, many either upgrading, downsizing, or entering the market for the first time through owner-occupied multifamily properties.
That last category is worth noting. Burlington has a significant stock of older multifamily homes, and buying a two- or three-unit building as a primary residence while renting the other units has become a practical path to affordability for younger buyers. The two major downtown colleges, UVM and Champlain, generate consistent rental demand that supports this strategy.
The multifamily investment market, which was quieter through much of 2025, is showing renewed activity this spring. “I’m noticing a bigger uptick in that regard, where people are getting back to the normal of taking on the investments,” Donaldson says.
Where Donaldson Sees Opportunity
For investors considering Burlington, two areas stand out.
The first is development, particularly in light of the recent zoning changes. Properties that can support additional density are attracting attention from local developers who previously had limited options. One investor, Donaldson, is currently working with recently acquired a commercial space that has operated as a single unit since 1950 and is converting it into 12 individual storefronts in Burlington’s Old North End.
The second is commercial space more broadly. The wave of office-to-residential conversions that followed the shift to remote work has left a growing gap in available retail and professional space. Buildings repurposed for housing are unlikely to revert, which means demand for remaining commercial inventory is rising. Downtown Burlington is also seeing new mixed-income residential development, with projects that combine market-rate luxury units with affordable units as required under city rules tied to project size.
A Market Finding Its Footing
The intensity of the post-COVID seller’s market, when waived inspections and dozens of competing offers were routine, has given way to something more measured over the past 12 to 18 months. Inspections are back on nearly all offers. Financing contingencies are standard again. Buyers are more deliberate.
“Buyers are definitely starting to get the upper hand,” Donaldson says, though he stops short of calling it a full buyer’s market given that inventory, while growing, remains constrained by historical standards.
Deal failures, when they do occur, tend to come down to financing. Of the three transactions that fell apart for Donaldson in 2025, out of 52 closings, two involved financing issues tied to job loss or appraisal gaps. A third fell apart after inspection. He also notes that timing around tax reassessments can create late-stage surprises when updated bills affect debt-to-income calculations.
Looking Ahead
Donaldson expects listing activity to continue rising over the next 12 months, new construction to gradually normalize as builders adjust to elevated material costs, and the overall market to sustain its current momentum.
He also points to broader signals of Burlington’s economic depth: Beta Technologies, the electric aircraft company headquartered a mile from downtown, went public in late 2025. The Vermont Green soccer club has drawn national attention for its on-field performance and growing attendance. Co-working hub Hula on Lakeside Avenue continues to incubate tech and AI startups. Burton Snowboards, the global market leader in its category, has been based in Burlington since its founding.
None of these are real estate stories in isolation. Together, they sketch a picture of a city with economic foundations its size might not suggest, and a housing market that, for now, continues to hold its own.
About the Expert: Isaiah Donaldson is Founder and Lead Realtor at idENTITY Real Estate Group in greater Burlington, Vermont, with six years of experience in the local market. He took over full ownership of the former Conroy Group in early 2024 and completed a full rebrand in March 2026, closing 52 transactions in 2025.
This article is based on information provided by the expert source cited above. It is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or real estate advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals before making any real estate or financial decisions.